the favourite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, betters tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favourites TLDR: buying NO below 85% @polymarket https://t.co/bFeSUbGjDg
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after todays news YES went from 10% to 23% on @polymarket think value is on betting NO. there's 60 days left until this resolves. politics moves incredibly slow, even if they can push it through eventually. there is just not enough time. waiting for >30% and then betting NO https://t.co/l9clOyDxbj
丰满 https://t.co/smROyedXtJ
@avantisfi airdrop pretty disappointing. provided and max-locked mid 5-figures for close to a year and ended up with a <$3k airdrop (assuming $200M fdv) https://t.co/S39PJ0hC0O
老板… https://t.co/CAwdBHxUgd
March Update: just barely reached my goal of $100k in monthly betting volume. aiming to reach $250k during march. strategy remains the same: focus on value bets and avoid markets with resolution date far in the future. https://t.co/Edg2fIKUPd
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even with everything that's been happening, Musk out as CEO is very unlikely. decent value on NO https://t.co/3xMywj5vlU
not entirely impossible but there's definitely value on betting NO. market doesn't move much and is decent for collecting some liquidity rewards as well. https://t.co/AvzDXCjeP2
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the favourite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, betters tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favourites TLDR: buying NO below 85% @polymarket https://t.co/bFeSUbGjDg
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@Truemarketsorg launch waiting room https://t.co/E2iBwAHMFd
thin liquidity but placed some bets on a large crypto hack happening before june on @Truemarketsorg we had 25 large hacks (10m+) during the 12 months. clear value on YES https://t.co/Gu3yQmnff6